War turned energy security into a test of physical resilience

The month was defined by the shift from geopolitical risk to physical energy disruption, with Hormuz attacks, tanker hazards and infrastructure strikes threatening oil, gas and power flows. Governments responded with reserve releases, supply rerouting and looser sanctions enforcement, but those measures exposed how little buffer remained against another shock. Hormuz Moves From Risk to Active Constraint Fuel Shortages Force Reserves and Sanctions Tradeoffs AI Demand Collides With Grid Capacity Energy Infrastructure Becomes a War Target Gas Trade Reroutes as European Vulnerability Returns Governments Turn Back Toward Fossil Supply Nuclear Expansion Gains Support but Faces Delays Refiners Capture the Conflict Windfall

At the same time, AI-driven electricity demand pushed grids toward new gas, nuclear and storage investment while transmission, permitting and cost disputes intensified. The month ended with energy systems more diversified in principle but still vulnerable to conflict, thin inventories, gas competition and unresolved infrastructure constraints.